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Well, really one of the best manifold I've listened to. It was a deep-dish Bismarckian generalist view.

Steve, you should have been more insisting on where all the data came from. Guess you must have a bunch of people who have knowledge about the real data that you can integrate, otherwise you'll easily get astray.

Maybe you present another Manifold with Phil Tetlock, what he has learned about good forecasters?

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In case it matters to anyone for quality-control purposes: poor audio on this one.

That said, I'd long wanted to hear this convo. Thanks very much!

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Two of my favorite intellectuals talking. This is going to be great!

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